Elon Musk is steamrolling Wall Street to become a trillionaire

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Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. Hello and welcome to Decoder. I'm Neil Ipatel, editor-in-chief of The Verge, and Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems. My guest today is Ryan Mack, technology reporter at The New York Times and co-author of the excellent book Character Limit, How Elon Musk Destroyed Twitter. The book came out in 2024. I could not recommend it more. I wanted to have Ryan on today because we're on the cusp of the SpaceX IPO, which promises to be one of the most consequential public offerings in history for a variety of reasons. It's the biggest ever size, of course, at nearly $2 trillion, but also because all kinds of rules that keep our markets fair are being bent, if not outright broken along the way. And also, because somewhere buried deep inside SpaceX is X, the social platform formerly known as Twitter, which Musk purchased in 2022. That's what Ryan co-wrote that book about. Now, you might recall that I personally was very confident that Elon Musk would come to regret buying Twitter. On the day of the sale, I wrote a piece called Welcome to Hell, Elon, which was probably the single most read thing I've ever written. My thesis was that there would be no way to grow Twitter users and revenue without moderating the platform well. And that ultimately, Elon buying Twitter would destroy his reputation and cause damage to his other companies. Well, now we have the numbers from the SpaceX IPO filing to see how right my prediction was. As you'll hear us discuss, X is shrinking by every major metric. But you're also going to hear Ryan point out that it might not matter. I'm curious, take a listen to this conversation and let me know what you think. Was I right or was I wrong? Ryan and I also got into all those rules that are being broken to land the SpaceX IPO. Rules about shareholder control, inclusion onto the major index funds, and all the other levers of market accountability that usually serve to keep companies in check. You're going to hear us say corporate governance a lot in this episode. And while it might sound boring, it won't be if you simply take a shot every time it comes up. Okay, don't do that. But do consider what it means that Elon Musk has become so rich, so powerful, and so detached from the levers of accountability that he can apparently get away with anything he wants without any major banks, fund managers, or investors calling foul, because they don't want to miss out on what could be the biggest financial windfall in recent memory. There's a lot to think about in this episode. Okay, New York Times tech reporter Ryan Mack on Elon Musk, X, and the SpaceX IPO. Here we go. Ryan Mack, New York technology reporter at The New York Times. Welcome to Decoder. Thanks for having me. I am really excited to talk to you. I can't believe you've never been on the show before. I feel like we've done a lot of reporting sort of in and around each other. I'm a big fan. Thanks so much for being on. I know, what the hell, man? You've just avoided me this whole time. But no, I'm kidding. It's good to be here. Listen to many episodes. So, great to be a part of it. Well, now we're going to ask you to answer for your crimes, which is what the Decoder audience really wants me to do with every guest. Now, speaking of crimes, we're going to talk about the SpaceX IPO. Elon Musk has obviously filed to take SpaceX public. There's a lot in that IPO, including the idea that there's like a $28 trillion addressable market for SpaceX services, which is more than the world. You know, just a lot, just a lot in there. And you've reported a lot of it. So, I do want to dive into it. I actually want to start with X, the everything app, the app formerly known as Twitter, because the SpaceX S1 really gives us our first look into what that business is, what it has become, where it's growing. In 2022, I wrote an article, maybe the most viral article I've ever written. It was called Welcome to Hell, Elon, in which I very confidently predicted that buying Twitter would be a disaster for Elon Musk. And I'm just going to read you my thesis. It was like the first sentence of the piece. And then I want to try to back into what we know about X. And I'm very curious if you think this has come true or not. So, my thesis was Twitter is a disaster clown car company that is successful despite itself. And there is no possible way to grow users and revenue without making a series of enormous compromises that will ultimately destroy Elon Musk's reputation and possibly cause grievous damage to his other companies. I think there's one view to say, yep, that totally came true. I think there's another view to say, actually, Elon is more powerful than ever and on the cusp of an IPO that's going to make him a trillionaire. So, tell me about X. What do we know about X, the company, in the years since Elon has bought it? And what do we know about its financials as reported in this S1? Sure. I think you mentioned the word growing and all that. And I think the place to start is the fact that X is simply not growing. You know, it's stagnated in terms of revenue, stagnated in terms of user growth. You know, it's been buried twice within Elon's companies, first into XAI and now into SpaceX. So, it's kind of become, in some ways, an afterthought in the Musk empire, despite it, you know, still being arguably Musk's favorite thing. You know, he spends countless hours a day on that thing, like many of us, used to many of us still do. But in terms of a business proposition, it's kind of a non-factor if you compare it to some of the other aspects of this business. You know, something like Starlink, for example. And if you look back at 2022, it's kind of just bizarre, right? He bought this company on a whim. He pitched this idea to investors that he would have a billion users. He would have payments integrated to it. It would be somewhere you could potentially book a taxi. You know, he pitched this idea of it being WeChat. You know, you mentioned the everything app, right? And it's certainly not the everything app. At one point, he was like, you could watch TV on it. And, you know, none of that has come to fruition. Yet, I look at what's happened in the last four or five years since then, four years, and he's gotten more powerful than ever. You know, his net worth has increased. I think around the time he bought the company, he was around $300 billion in net worth. His net worth fluctuates anywhere from $600, $800 billion these days. And the SpaceX IPO will take him potentially beyond the trillion dollar mark for the first time ever in human history. It's bizarre in that, like, there's a lot of contradictory things about it, but at the end of the day, I'd argue he still comes out on top. Is it just as simple as he bought a distribution platform for his own tweets and he controlled it and he fixed the algorithm to favor himself and that worked? And it doesn't matter that revenue is down $100 million year over year and it's only not even like quite 40% of Twitter's pre-acquisition revenue. Like he's destroyed the business by every metric we can see in the S1. Every number is down. And only the revenue from data licensing to AI companies is up. His own AI company too. And that, like, yes, if you singularly look at X as a business, it's clearly a failure from the time he took over the company to, you know, Fidelity marking the valuation of the company down to $10 million before he merged it with XAI. You have to look at it in the whole landscape of Musk Inc., I guess. And since he bought the company, he spun up XAI, raised billions of dollars for that company. He then merged it into XAI, kind of burying it. And then he merged it again into XAI and SpaceX. And so I guess he's up. And if you're doing like a plus minus Kind of a ceiling here in terms of attracting a wider audience. Do you think as we go into the IPO and SpaceX becomes a public company and X is just sort of one piece of the puzzle that it increases or decreases in importance to Elon? It is his favorite thing, but running a public rocket company is just a very different set of priorities. Maybe, but also, like, he never operates as we expect him to, right? Like, man, running Tesla and having a Twitter account has not worked out well for him in the past. You know, he's been sued for some of the stuff he's put on X, I think of, or sorry, on Twitter. I think of 2018 when he got sued for saying funding secured for taking Tesla private, you know, and he got away, you know, paid $20 million in a fine and largely got away with it. He's way more powerful now, way richer than ever. So I don't think, you know, SpaceX being a public company will necessarily change his habits on X these days. I mean, the other day I saw him posting about the Anthropic deal. I don't know if you saw that. That was in the S1. And he was pushing back on the idea that Anthropic would pay this amount of money for a certain amount of years, you know, this large amount of revenue, $1.25 billion a year. And he was openly contradicting what was in the company's IPO documents, which you cannot do during a quiet period. And, you know, I don't think anything is going to come of that. He's, I don't think he'll get a slap on the wrist or anything. He's just kind of higher than any form of accountability right now. We're going to pause here for a quick break. We'll be right back. Support for the show comes from Quo. We're always looking for ways to stop leaving money on the table. And a big one, especially if you run a business, missed calls. Because a missed call is money out the door. That's why today's episode is brought to you by Quo, spelled Q-U-O. The business communication system built so you never miss a call. Quo isn't just a phone system. It's a smart system. AI automatically logs calls, generates summaries, and flags next steps so nothing falls through the cracks. And it can even qualify leads or respond after hours so your business stays on even when you're off. With Quo, calls, texts, voicemails, transcripts, and contact details are all in one clean view so your entire team can handle calls and texts from one shared number. Make this the season where no opportunity and no customer slips away. Try Quo for free plus 20% off your first six months when you go to quo.com slash decoder. That's Q-U-O dot com slash decoder. Support for the show comes from Upwork. If you run a business, you want to keep it growing. But growth needs to be scaled properly or else it could all come crashing down. Upwork helps teams quickly bring in specialized freelancers so you can move faster and take your business to the next level. Upwork is a one-stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers. 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Email, SMS, and push, all coordinated, on-brand, grounded in 14 years of Klaviyo marketing data. Nothing goes live without your say-so. The other Klaviyo AI agent keeps your customers happy at any hour. Brand-trained to answer questions, make product recommendations, and handle orders and returns. No hold music. Marketing that launches instantly. Support that never sleeps. Join more than 193,000 brands, including Away, Patrick Ta, and Dollar Shave Club, already growing with Klaviyo, the autonomous B2C CRM. Get started at klaviyo.com. We're back with New York Times tech reporter Ryan Mack discussing the path from Elon Musk buying the platform formerly known as Twitter to taking SpaceX public. I think that brings us to the larger SpaceX IPO in general. Because the whole thing is structured to avoid the mechanisms of accountability that usually exist in our markets, right? It's going to end up on the NASDAQ in some way, shape, or form in a way that basically all of us are going to end up invested in SpaceX. And we can't take our dollars away because it'll be the index fund. Elon is going to control an enormous part of the company in a way that maybe he just can never be removed. And who knows if even having a board of directors is important in that sort of case. And then, you know, he has a monopoly in rocket launches, at least for now. And who knows if there will be market alternatives to provide accountability to SpaceX. Walk us through how this is structured. You've written about it at length that the SpaceX IPO is a corporate governance disaster if you care about corporate governance. Walk us through it. I'm a big corporate governance guy myself. It is the hottest. It's what all the TikTok dances are about lately. Yeah, I have a corporate governance tattoo on my lower back. But this is like serious stuff. And it's concerning to people that study corporate governance. So let's talk about Elon Musk's ownership of the company or his voting control of the company. He has super voting shares that all told give him about 85% control of votes at the company. And that's a super, super majority at this point. He basically controls every corporate decision at the share voting level. And, you know, I think of something like Meta, for example, and compare that to Mark Zuckerberg. I think with super voting and voting agreements, Zuckerberg controls about 60%. So Elon has even a larger stranglehold on his company than that. So what does that mean? It means he controls the board. He appoints friends and advisors to board seats. He, you know, there's no independent board commission to structure pay packages. So essentially he has control over how he gets compensated. I wrote about this pay package that he got earlier this year, where he was awarded 1.3 billion shares in what's called restricted stock. And if you actually look at the footnotes there in that S1, you could see that he's already able to vote that stock, which is kind of insane. And it's kind of unheard of, you know, he hasn't earned any of these shares and these shares are pegged to hitting milestones of the company, creating a colony on Mars with a million people and putting data centers in space with, I think, a hundred terawatts of compute a year. Just, you know, an astronomical figure. And he has to hit these things in order to gain these shares to sell them. Well, he hasn't hit any of these milestones and he's able to vote these already given the stipulations that were put on them. Can I, can I ask you about this? The colony on Mars is a million people. However many, I mean, this is all bananas, right? I guess we're burning the lead here. Yeah. Right. Like he, he gets a huge pay package if he puts a colony on Mars with a million people in it and he puts however many terawatts of compute in space. Right. He's in charge of this S1. Like he obviously wrote it to his own specifications. Why set milestones that are unachievable and then vote the stock anyway, instead of just giving yourself the stock. Good question. I think, I don't know, maybe it gives some semblance of like, he has to work towards these goals. But if you talk to corporate governance folks, they're sort of appalled that he gets to vote these anyways. You know, this adds to his, his voting control, that 85% we talked about earlier. On top of that, he gets to take out loans against these shares and that, of course that comes with board approval, but he controls the board. So he's able to take out loans against these shares and get cash. And yeah, I don't know. I don't know why even play this kind of dance of, I have to hit these milestones. My theory is that so he can tweet about them. Right. Like legitimately, my theory is that he wants to be able to say, I don't get paid unless I put a million people on Mars, regardless of the technical details of whether he can vote the shares or take out loans against them as collateral. He gets to represent to the world, I don't receive the windfall until there's a million people on Mars. Great point. There's also a fun little wrinkle here in that you don't pay taxes on them until you earn them. And so because he hasn't earned them because he doesn't technically hold them yet or doesn't have the ability to sell them, it's not taxable. And so he doesn't have to pay taxes on that either until he hits his milestones. So in some ways, if you believe he'll never hit them, he can still derive the power and potentially financial gain from it simply Now he's promising robotics and robotaxis and a bunch of other things that may never come to pass. Is he going to be able to pull the same move with SpaceX, just continually promise something bigger to come in the future that changes the value dynamic of the company? He's sort of is right now as we speak. You know what happened at the beginning of this year? Well, SpaceX was going along his way. It was a launch business with with rockets that have self-landing capabilities and a really good business in Starlink. And what did he do? He combined it with XAI and said, actually, you know what we're going to do? We're going to put data centers into space and this is the future. And oh, by the way, we're going to put a factory on Mars to build these satellites to launch into space. And then we'll get to the Mars colony. You know, these are goals that have come up within the last year. He didn't talk about these things previously. And so in the same way at Tesla, where he has completely pivoted the company towards robots and, you know, the humanoid, whatever things, um, you're getting the same kind of effect at SpaceX, where he's just selling people on a completely different bill of goods. I think it's just, it's just so interesting. I look at some of the contradictions he's made over the years. There's a tweet of his that he put up probably a year ago where he said the moon doesn't matter. You know, we're not focused on the moon. We're focused on Mars. And then you go back and you look at the IPO documents and what he said more recently in the last couple of months, and now they're all in on the moon. Um, and that's because, you know, NASA has put a renewed focus on the moon and there's money there. If you're going off of what Elon says, you know, it's, it's kind of whichever way the wind blows at this point. And thus far, that's worked for him. People are willing to go with him and believe in him. We have to take another short break here. We'll be back in just a minute. Support for the show comes from ServiceNow. AI was supposed to handle the parts of the job you hate. Instead, it just describes them, suggests what to do about them, and then leaves you to do it. That's not help, that's homework. ServiceNow's AI specialists are different. They're not a tool. Think of them as digital teammates who actually do the work from start to finish. Cases get resolved. Requests get processed. Loops get closed. And most importantly, no extra work for you. Because when you can truly delegate to AI, you can get back to the work only you can do. The work that requires a person with ideas and judgment, and you know, a pulse. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit servicenow.com. I keep seeing celebrities post me in the 90s versus now. Well, the person staring at me in the mirror is definitely not the same person that could pull off bootcut jeans. Time creeps up on us so slowly. You don't see it until suddenly you do. Same thing goes for your bills. A dollar here, an uptick there. It's a slow burn until one day you realize the price you're paying now is way higher than when you signed up. But at T-Mobile, customers have the lowest wireless bills versus Verizon and AT&T over the past five years. And with T-Mobile on their experience plans, you get a five-year price guarantee. So you know exactly what your plan price will be for the next five years. So at least that's one thing that won't change over time. I can't guarantee you'll still look good with frosted tips, but T-Mobile can give you a clear guarantee on your wireless plan. Lower bills based on AirTech billing snapshots from Q3 21 to Q4 25 compared to average AT&T and Verizon bills. Comparison excludes discounts, credits, and optional charges. Price guarantee on talk, text, and data exclusions like taxes and fees apply. See T-Mobile.com. Support for the show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O.com. We're back with New York Times tech reporter Ryan Mack. Before the break, we were discussing all of the relevant factors swirling around a SpaceX IPO. And of course, the Elon of it all. But now I want to dig into the actual financials of the business to get a realistic idea of what this company actually is. So here we are, a half hour into a conversation about the SpaceX IPO, and we're going to talk about the fundamentals of the SpaceX business. Because that's about where it ranks, right? It's like the 15th thing on the priority list when you talk about the SpaceX IPO, is the fundamentals of the business. As you've said several times now, Starlink is the only profitable part of this business. It generated $11.39 billion in revenue last year. It goes up and down. Everything else is a gigantic money loser. The AI division had a deficit of $6.35 billion. The NASA contracts for launch lost $657 million. Everything else is losing money. And then Starlink is the business that's growing and generating actual profits. I look at that, I think, boy, I've covered the broadband industry for a long time here at The Verge. AT&T and Verizon are not the world's sexiest businesses. They're not throwing off so much margin that you can lose $6 billion on AI for the rest of your life. How does that work? Is there more Starlink to be had? Are we going to rip up all the fiber in the world and roll out hit satellites? How do you generate enough money with Starlink to pay for all of this other stuff? I believe SpaceX thinks Starlink can continue to grow. There are a lot of markets it hasn't tapped yet. I think of something like India, for example, where the company is heavily courting the Modi government there to allow them to operate in a country with 1.5 billion people. And there are markets like that that it can access and continue to grow that roughly 10 million, I think, monthly active user base. Can I push that back on that just for one second? The Indian market is very complicated, but it is very well served by its own telecom providers. Like Reliance Jio is the winner in the Indian market. And a huge number of people just have a cell phone as their primary connectivity device. And they're doing fine. And it's dirt cheap. Even if you're excited about putting Starlink in that market, how do you compete against that? Is it possible? Have they laid out the case? They have not. And you could also argue that the revenue per user there is not going to be the same as it would be in the U.S. or wherever else. But yeah, they've made the argument that as long as it continues to grow, it's a good thing. They'll continue to launch more satellites into space with these things and cover the world, essentially. Gwen Shotwell, the CEO, gave a presentation at Mobile World Congress earlier this year where she basically put out a hit on all these big telecoms. And online, she's compared herself or compared SpaceX, the David versus the Goliath, which is kind of a convenient narrative where you have a $1.25 trillion David going against these supposed Goliaths here. I mean, I guess that's the bull case for Starlink, right? But if you look at the other fundamentals of this, like this spending on AI is quite nuts. Like it's losing so much money on AI development. We haven't even talked about the massive amount it has to pay for Cursor, which is like a, what, $60 billion deal. You asked earlier, like, what are people investing in here? They're investing in promise. There's no fundamentals here. Like, we can talk till we're blue in the face about profits and revenues and growth, but at the end of the day, most investors are betting on Elon's words and his ability to sell them on this idea of putting data centers into space or getting people to Mars. The AI piece is fascinating. They're estimating that $22.7 trillion will be generated from enterprise AI services. Yeah, I want to talk about this TAM. This is, this is insane. The TAM is the total addressable market. It is $28 trillion, I think, maybe slightly more. There's a great line in the S1, which is like, it's something like, this is the largest TAM ever in human history. And I'm like, cool, like, show me how you got there. And it's like, it's kind of just like, trust me, bro. You know, it's like, you know, we got this. Like, we did the numbers. And it's, yeah, $23 trillion in AI and $3 billion in rocket launches and sorry, trillion, not billion. I kind of mix those up all the time. But I don't know where the fundamentals are for that. Like, what are they basing that on? It's, it's, it's sure. It's in their S1, but it's, it's a lot of trust me at this point. The case for this is going to be a great IPO because SpaceX figured out the Falcon 9 and rocket reusability. And they essentially have a monopoly on launch services in the United States, at Do you think there's a chance that this IPO is as big as it's gonna end up being? Probably not as big. I think it's hard to say. I still think there would be an incredible amount of hype around this company still. And, you know, you just don't get this type of excitement for any CEO beyond Elon Musk. You know, for a lot of people, he is still, they don't necessarily pay attention to his politics or his everyday posting on Twitter, his, you know, hate speech or, you know, whatever thing he's concocting on the platform. They see him as a successful businessman, a generational talent that, you know, put Teslas on the roads, and they see that every day. They see that as a chance to invest in him. And so I think there's still, there would still be a large amount of retail, you know, obviously not the same amount as like these, you know, having to force index funds to buy into a company. But I think that alone might drive a lot of success for this IPO. But again, completely hypothetical situation. So I guess we'll have to see in two weeks. I'm very curious. Do you think there are any other correctives, right? We've talked about the market correctives. We've talked about the index rules. We've talked about the corporate governance issues. Are there any other correctives here or are we just along for the ride? I thought about accountability for Elon for a long time. I mean, that's sort of the point of our book. How do you hold someone that rich accountable? And I just think the normal levers of accountability for someone like that have gone out the window. And yeah, we're along for the ride. I have one example in this IPO, which is, you know, shareholders, if you're a shareholder in SpaceX, you agree to arbitration for any issues around if you believe some kind of fraud or violation of securities laws happened. You know, in the past, you know, Elon has faced lawsuits from shareholders at Tesla and Twitter. At SpaceX, he's essentially removed that ability to pursue those types of shareholder lawsuits. And so he's kind of stacking the deck for himself here and removing any of the obstacles he could face as a public company CEO and kind of, you know, entrenched himself in this company, built a, you know, pretty big moat around himself. And I think that the impact of that will be seen for years to come. Well, Ryan, it feels like no matter what, you and I are both going to end up as SpaceX shareholders. So I'll see you at the next meeting. Thank you so much for being on Decoder. This was great. Thanks for having me. I'll see you on Mars. 1 million strong, bro. I'd like to thank Ryan Mack for taking the time to join Decoder, and thank you for listening. I hope you enjoyed it. If you'd like to let us know what you thought about this episode or really anything else at all, drop us a line. You can email us at decoder at theverge.com. We really do read all the emails. You can also hit me up directly on Threads or BlueSky. The show is on YouTube. You can watch full episodes at DecoderPod. It's the same handle on TikTok and Instagram. As you know, the clips are a lot of fun. If you like Decoder, please share it with your friends and subscribe wherever you get podcasts. If you really like the show, hit us with that five-star review. Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. The show is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Stat, edited by Erza Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. We'll see you next time. Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at Odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. Hi, I'm Katie, your friend and jeweler at Shane Company. Daydreaming about bringing your engagement ring vision to life? As a jewelry consultant, I'm here to help. Compare ring styles side-by-side. They're in stock and ready to try on. Then customize it with an engraving or decorative crown. At Shane Company, there's so many ways to create your dream ring at your dream price. Visit us in-store or at ShaneCo.com. Because a friend wants you to get exactly what you want. Shane Company, your friend in jeweler. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion-dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com.